This site has moved

http://gwtechinc.com/eric-wilson/

From here (above) I will continue to give everything as before; yet in a more user friendly environment.

The next two weeks changes might appear, so forgive me.

The suggestion I get from most of you is to make this site social; so that’s the goal.

Enjoy the new site, bookmark it, sign up for email updates, all the bells and whistles.

My best, always.

Eric

Flooding in the Southeast, just a matter of time now

With more than 15 inches recorded in Jackson, MS, its now just a matter of time.

Alabama is getting wet now, and the same threat exists for those previously mentioned (see Lee tab)

This will conclude any posts regarding Lee, stay informed from your local sources as they have the best resources for you right now.

My best, always.

Eric

The Gulf Of Mexico Isn’t Done Yet, Hitting Florida’s West Coast on Sunday

The Gulf Of Mexico Will Be Watched For Possible Development This Week:
A trough of low pressure extending south from the remnants of Lee is forecast to push southward over the next couple of days with a circulation spinning up in the Bay of Campeche or the southern Gulf of Mexico by late this week.

The GFS model forecasts that this system will be pulled up to the northeast as it gets caught up in a trough of low pressure and makes landfall along the Florida Panhandle on Sunday.

Right now a track more towards the northeast from the southern Gulf of Mexico to the Florida Panhandle along the trough axis may be a more realistic scenario.

This potential development will be watched closely this week and I will keep you all updated.

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Image:

Invest 95L, Another Threat Looms in the Atlantic.

Tropical Disturbance In The Eastern Atlantic Designated Invest 95L Needs To Be Monitored:

I’m also keeping close tabs on a tropical wave, now designated Invest 95L by the National Hurricane Center, that is located in the eastern Atlantic about 500 miles to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Some development of this disturbance is possible this week, however, the global model guidance indicates that development will wait until it is in the Caribbean in 6 to 8 days or so.

It looks like that this disturbance will have plenty of moist air to work with and environmental conditions are favorable for development.

This is a system that definitely will need to be watched closely as a ridge of high pressure will strengthen as Katia pulls to the north and northeast later this week. This would mean that 95L would likely remain on a general westward track right into the Caribbean by the weekend.

Those in the Lesser Antilles should keep a close eye on 95L as it may be affecting you in about 6 to 8 days from now.

Katia, Cat 2, slows down and spins up into a Major Hurricane by Tuesday

Katia, a Cat 2, is expected to slow down (in its movement northwest) and sit and spin up to a major Hurricane by Tuesday. Just look at the well defined eye wall, moving slightly south of the suggested path. Notice the ever slight power shift to the west and south (White), and lack of it north.

Lets take a closer look as this is what I’ve been talking about for a while.

Katia is off the projected path slightly, but still off. By now, the models have Katia at 25N and 63W, but the IR tells a different story; revealing the eye wall at 24N, 62.5W.

This matters, to be off by a whole degree, and will be reflected in the 11am update; I would be surprised if those changes did not take this into account.

There is still much doubt on my part regarding the models resolving the eventual northern turn.

It is my opinion the models are giving a trough of low pressure (don’t worry about what that means) too much power, thus producing the suggested turn out into the Atlantic.

Even the UKMET resolved this overnight, a huge change from yesterday’s westward path.

Just look at the change overnight (Highlighted by the white line). The above is Monday’s resolution, below was yesterday’s. That’s a huge shift, based on a trough which I don’t think has the strength the models are giving it.

This is great news for surfers, don’t get me wrong, and great news for anyone on the East Coast; yet I will believe it when I see it.

Lee (see other tab above) is causing all kinds of problems (in my opinion) with the path of Katia, and could be the reason for the UKMET change overnight. Who knows?

So, don’t trust the models…just use them for guidance and use your due diligence to make sure you have all the facts.

The overnight ‘breathing’ is normal, shown with the pressure and wind field both weakening (lack of sunlight does this most of the time towards sunrise).

This won’t be as appearant once she hits the water in the high 80s, which by then Katia will be a Major Hurricane.

My Best, always.

Eric

Katia, Hurricane Cat 2 by Thursday; 700 plus miles away from Florida Coastline

Katia, will become a major Hurricane in the coming days.By Thursday, she will still be more that 700 miles from the Florida coastline. What concerns me the most is her lack of northward movement, which means the likely hood of landfall increases each day as she moves more west than north.

Looking at the continual drop in pressure is always a good indicator, as well as the rise in wind speeds (sustained)

As mentioned before, with continual dropping of internal pressure, water temps in the high 80s, and wind speeds increasing it now is all about “location, location, location”

Here is where she is as of Sunday morning, notice how she is feeding on the 1. Lack of shear to the west, 2. Water Temps in the high 80s; which in the end pulls and resets the projected paths. With continued WNW movement, models suggest turning north past 70 degrees west; all the while we have been hinting at 73 or further before tracking due north.

 

Models are projections, not facts. It is concerning that we have been right about the west drifting; I mean we don’t want this to land anywhere. The UKMET (While line) is especially Floridians hope is incorrect; however it had been the model of choice with Irene with 90% accuracy.

So, stay tuned. Sign up and stay informed via email, RSS feeds, Twitter, or whatever you like.

My best, always.

Eric

Tropical Storm Lee, flooding not just Lousiana; Mississippi and Alabama are next

Lee makes landfall, and in turtle form will continue to tap into the Gulf and drench Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama by Tuesday night

When computer models project 10″ (as a rule of thumb) I always double the number; just take my word for it. Now, in the case of a Tropical Storm or Disturbance I triple it. Just ask anyone in Brevard county from Tropical Storm Fay, they saw near 36 to 40 inches of rain, and the flooding happened 36 hours later. Trust me, this is 20 years talking.

With those numbers (3 feet of rain) in those areas, anyone in low lying areas must consider relocating by Monday (Mississippi) or Tuesday (Alabama) as flooding will start 36 hours after the storm ‘leaves’ the area. Its attrition, for those curious. The water always seeks the lowest point, then floods up from that area. If you are 30 minutes from any low lying area, consider you and your family in harms way and take measures to protect what you consider valuable. If you or anyone you are concerned about are within the circles, consider yourself forewarned.

Outside of the obvious (your family and friends), consider pictures and documents which can not be reproduced; then move out and wait until Thursday (Mississippi) or Friday (Alabama) to make the call about going back at the soonest, it could be longer.

Be safe, always.

Eric

3 feet of Rain By Monday? Lee isn’t going very fast at all

3 feet of Rain By Monday? Lee isn’t going very fast at all.

3 feet of Rain By Monday? Lee isn’t going very fast at all

Not a good weekend for concerns of flooding in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama continue

Lee has strengthened overnight and is a moderate tropical storm with 60 mph maximum winds. Lee is tracking very slowly north-northwestward at 5 to 6 mph or so this morning.

A very slow track northward into southern Louisiana by late tonight or Sunday morning is expected.

Just look at the rain totals so far, and its only day one of a three day downpour.

At this rate, by Monday night this area could see 3 feet of rain; yes….that’s right 36 inches or more. Now, where is all that water going to go? Let’s just take it one day at time

From there, Lee should turn more to the northeast and track into southern Mississippi once we get into Monday and Tuesday.

Lee is expected to strengthen today into a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds.

Once Lee tracks inland into southern Louisiana on Sunday, weakening will be slow to occur as part of the circulation will be over water and also the very marshy nature of southern Louisiana.

So, Lee could remain a moderately strong tropical storm right into Monday.

Heavy Rainfall Threat: The main story with Lee is the continuation of very heavy rainfall amounts. Total rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches are expected across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama through Sunday night. Extensive flash flooding is likely. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected across the Florida Panhandle through Sunday night. Flash flood watches are in effect across all of southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama. If you are in a Flash Flood Watch, please be alert for any flood warnings and be ready to take immediate action to save life and property if flooding occurs.

Storm Surge: The combination of a storm surge due to prolonged onshore winds and astronomical high tides will cause ocean waters to rise to 3 to 5 feet above mean sea level across southern and southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi from today through Sunday. The result will be up to 3 to 5 feet of flood water inundation along the Louisiana coast and up to 2 to 4 feet of flood water inundation along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines.

Minor storm surge flooding is expected outside of the hurricane protection levees along the shores of Lakes Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas and along the immediate Mississippi and Alabama coastlines. If you live in these areas, expect minor flooding of property and low lying roads.

Storm surge flooding is likely along the Louisiana coast with several feet of water possible in non-elevated structures or those buildings that are built on a slab. Roads along the coast, bayous and low lying areas may be closed due to several feet of water on them.. Residents along the Louisiana coast should heed evacuation advice from emergency management officials.

Wind: Tropical storm force winds with gusts to 65 to 70 mph are likely across much of southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama from today through Sunday.

Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes are possible from today through Sunday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.

The future track of the remnants of Lee is a key part of the forecast for Katia next week.

Katia is barely a hurricane this morning due to southwesterly wind shear and some dry air intrusion.

An upper level trough of low pressure located to the northwest of the storm is weakening, however, another trough of low pressure will push southwestward along the US East Coast and combine with the remnants of Lee next week.

At the same time, a ridge of high pressure may nose westward towards the US East Coast. The wind field has remained just at Hurricane strength.

The big question in the forecast track of Katia is will this trough align itself to allow the storm to track close enough to ride northward right along the US East Coast or will the trough deflect the storm further east. The pressure continues to hold.

Even though some of the model guidance like the GFS and European model have shifted a little eastward overnight,  Katia could track further west than what these models are forecasting.

At this point, I think we will see Katia not turn to the north until it is near 73 West Longitude.

Katia should continue to track further west than what the global models are forecasting.

The UKMET model is stubborn on its westward track into the southeastern Bahamas by Wednesday and Thursday.

While I think the UKMET model may be too far west, I do think Katia will track further west than what models like the GFS and European model are forecasting.

 

With that said, the stubbornness and consistency of the UKMET model has me concerned.

Katia should be a Category 2 hurricane on Tuesday.

Katia should track west-northwestward to near 28 North Latitude, 73 West Longitude before it turns to the north on Thursday.

From there, Katia will track north-northeastward moving just east of the outer banks of North Carolina and then tracking extremely closely to eastern New England on Friday followed by a possible impact into Nova Scotia next weekend.

The future track of the remnants of Lee is a key part of the forecast for next week.

The difference in some of the models is that they track Lee much quicker to the northeast, which breaks down the ridge of high pressure and causing Katia to turn much quicker into the open Atlantic.

If the remnants of Lee stalls instead, what could happen is that the ridge of high pressure would build back to the west and cause Katia to track westward all the way to the US East Coast.

So, the remnants of Lee is a big key in this forecast.

Everything is connected.

My best, always

Eric