“Lee” & Flooding Concerns

Flooding in the Southeast, just a matter of time now

September 5, 2011 Eric Edit Leave a comment Go to comments

With more than 15 inches recorded in Jackson, MS, its now just a matter of time.

Alabama is getting wet now, and the same threat exists for those previously mentioned (see Lee tab)

This will conclude any posts regarding Lee, stay informed from your local sources as they have the best resources for you right now.

My best, always.

Eric

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Tropical Storm Lee, flooding not just Lousiana; Mississippi and Alabama are next

Lee makes landfall, and in turtle form will continue to tap into the Gulf and drench Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama by Tuesday night

When computer models project 10″ (as a rule of thumb) I always double the number; just take my word for it. Now, in the case of a Tropical Storm or Disturbance I triple it. Just ask anyone in Brevard county from Tropical Storm Fay, they saw near 36 to 40 inches of rain, and the flooding happened 36 hours later. Trust me, this is 20 years talking.

With those numbers (3 feet of rain) in those areas, anyone in low lying areas must consider relocating by Monday (Mississippi) or Tuesday (Alabama) as flooding will start 36 hours after the storm ‘leaves’ the area. Its attrition, for those curious. The water always seeks the lowest point, then floods up from that area. If you are 30 minutes from any low lying area, consider you and your family in harms way and take measures to protect what you consider valuable. If you or anyone you are concerned about are within the circles, consider yourself forewarned.

Outside of the obvious (your family and friends), consider pictures and documents which can not be reproduced; then move out and wait until Thursday (Mississippi) or Friday (Alabama) to make the call about going back at the soonest, it could be longer.

Be safe, always.

Eric

Not a good weekend for concerns of flooding in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama continue

Lee has strengthened overnight and is a moderate tropical storm with 60 mph maximum winds. Lee is tracking very slowly north-northwestward at 5 to 6 mph or so this morning.

A very slow track northward into southern Louisiana by late tonight or Sunday morning is expected.

Just look at the rain totals so far, and its only day one of a three day downpour.

At this rate, by Monday night this area could see 3 feet of rain; yes….that’s right 36 inches or more. Now, where is all that water going to go? Let’s just take it one day at time

From there, Lee should turn more to the northeast and track into southern Mississippi once we get into Monday and Tuesday.

Lee is expected to strengthen today into a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds.

Once Lee tracks inland into southern Louisiana on Sunday, weakening will be slow to occur as part of the circulation will be over water and also the very marshy nature of southern Louisiana.

So, Lee could remain a moderately strong tropical storm right into Monday.

Heavy Rainfall Threat: The main story with Lee is the continuation of very heavy rainfall amounts. Total rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches are expected across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama through Sunday night. Extensive flash flooding is likely. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected across the Florida Panhandle through Sunday night. Flash flood watches are in effect across all of southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama. If you are in a Flash Flood Watch, please be alert for any flood warnings and be ready to take immediate action to save life and property if flooding occurs.

Storm Surge: The combination of a storm surge due to prolonged onshore winds and astronomical high tides will cause ocean waters to rise to 3 to 5 feet above mean sea level across southern and southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi from today through Sunday. The result will be up to 3 to 5 feet of flood water inundation along the Louisiana coast and up to 2 to 4 feet of flood water inundation along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines.

Minor storm surge flooding is expected outside of the hurricane protection levees along the shores of Lakes Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas and along the immediate Mississippi and Alabama coastlines. If you live in these areas, expect minor flooding of property and low lying roads.

Storm surge flooding is likely along the Louisiana coast with several feet of water possible in non-elevated structures or those buildings that are built on a slab. Roads along the coast, bayous and low lying areas may be closed due to several feet of water on them.. Residents along the Louisiana coast should heed evacuation advice from emergency management officials.

Wind: Tropical storm force winds with gusts to 65 to 70 mph are likely across much of southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama from today through Sunday.

Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes are possible from today through Sunday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.

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September 2, 2011 Eric Edit Leave a comment

This is something that will need to be watched very closely, keep an update with the radar to the right by clicking on the picture for the most up to date loop of what’s happening now.

Tropical Depression 13 is fairly elongated this morning with poorly organized thunderstorm activity.

The current depression is experiencing some shear on its west side, however, environmental conditions will become more favorable this weekend.

This system still remains to surprise us and strengthen into an upper end tropical storm or possibly a Category 1 hurricane.

Very heavy flooding rainfall will be the main threat with this slow moving meandering system.

Given the fact that the center is so broad, TD 13 (Lee) could reform further to the southeast closer to the deep convection today, time will tell.

This could also allow this system a little more time to strengthen before it comes ashore next week, also something to keep in mind.

Tropical Depression 13 (Lee) is within an area of light steering winds to the south of a ridge of high pressure over the Mississippi Valley.

This ridge of high pressure is expected to push to the east this weekend as a trough of low pressure tracks southeastward into the Ohio Valley by Sunday and Monday.

What does any of that have to do with TD 13 (Lee)?

Expect this tropical storm to move VERY SLOWLY and track eastward from:

Vermilion Bay during Sunday

then, Lake Borgne in southeastern Louisiana on Monday evening

and then finally inland into Mississippi and Alabama on Monday night or Tuesday morning.

There still exists the very real possibility of 30 to 50 mph east to southeast winds in the New Orleans metro area from today through Sunday followed by northerly winds of 30 to 50 mph on Monday and Tuesday.

So, what could happen is that the water will pile up on the northern and northwestern shores of Lake Pontchartrain this weekend and then be pushed back out towards New Orleans on Monday and Tuesday.

My best, always.

Eric

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Invest 93L In The Gulf Of Mexico: everyone along the northern Gulf coast should closely monitor the progress of Invest 93L.

Invest 93L is a large area of disturbed weather that is located over the southern and eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning.

Environmental conditions are not favorable for development right now as this system is being sheared (or, ripped apart…but not for much longer)

Environmental conditions are expected to become favorable by tonight and remain favorable right into this weekend.

Expect this to become Tropical Storm Lee sometime on Saturday.

The track of 93L is very difficult as this may be a system that meanders around for several days.

Right now, the resolution lies that 93L will meander around just off of the Texas and Louisiana coast for several days and potentially become a hurricane Sunday night or Monday.

The European model is downright scary as it forecasts this thing to become a significant hurricane as it makes landfall in southeastern Louisiana next Thursday night.

It should be noted that this is the second model run forecast in a row that the European model develops this into a major hurricane.

The UKMET model, which has the best track record at the 6 day forecast mark, forecasts 93L to slowly track onshore into southeastern Louisiana on Monday night and Tuesday.

Given the very weak steering currents forecast next week across the northern Gulf coast, 93L/future Lee has the potential to track just about anywhere along the northern Gulf coast and at this point.

There is the very real potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend into next week.

There is an above average amount of uncertainty in the forecast track of this system

(as the steering currents are weak and it is unclear whether 93L will be picked up by a trough of low pressure)

So we are left with whether or not Lee threatens the central eastern Gulf coast next week,

or

be missed by this trough of low pressure , and therefore threaten the western Gulf coast.

Great.

My best, always.

Eric

I continue to keep a close eye on a tropical disturbance that has tracked from the northwestern Caribbean into the southern Gulf of Mexico today.

This disturbance has just been designated Invest 93L by the National Hurricane Center and is expected to track northwestward over the next few days.

Invest 93L continues to have the potential to become a tropical storm late this week into this weekend and very possibly a hurricane as it meanders near the Texas coast during the early and middle part of next week.

Anyone along the Texas coast, as well as along the northern Gulf Coast to keep very close tabs on Invest 93L.

I will have more later in the morning

My best, always

Eric

This development stems from a tropical disturbance now located over the northwestern Caribbean.

This disturbance will track into the southern Gulf of Mexico within the next 24 to 36 hours and then slowly organize and develop late this week into this weekend as it heads towards the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Should this develop it will become Tropical Storm Lee as it slowly tracks into the western and northwestern Caribbean by Sunday and Monday.

A trend in the guidance has this system in the northern half of  the Gulf of Mexico within some very weak steering currents.

The latest European model guidance foresees this potential with the future TS Lee nearly stalled in the western Gulf of Mexico from Monday through Wednesday before it tracks inland near Galveston and Houston next Thursday.

Something to keep in mind, the Gulf of Mexico is very warm and tropical systems near the Texas coast have a history of developing and intensifying very quickly near the Texas coast.

Keep following this one, as right now its a bigger problem for the US than Katia.

My best, always.

Eric

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Potential Development In The Gulf Of Mexico Late This Week Into This Weekend:
As an area of disturbed weather in the northwestern Caribbean gets more attention, it is forecast to track into the Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 hours and potentially develop into a tropical storm this weekend in the western Gulf of Mexico.

All of the global model guidance are now on board with this type of scenario with the GFS model forecasting a track that slowly moves along the central and western coast of Louisiana late this weekend and then along the Texas coast as we get into Monday and Tuesday.

The European model, on the other hand, forecasts that this system will track onshore into south Texas next Tuesday as a upper end tropical storm or a hurricane.

Given the fact that we have a tropical disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean that will track into the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday and also that environmental conditions are expected to be quite favorable in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend; the chances of tropical development is fairly high.

Right now this development will become more prominent towards the central and lower Texas coast given the overall synoptic setup of high pressure to the north.

What is potentially awesome news is that the Louisiana and Texas coasts may receive some much needed rainfall this coming weekend into next week.

Keep checking the page link above for updates, and follow me on twitter just in case.

My best, always.

Eric