Katia

Katia, Cat 2, slows down and spins up into a Major Hurricane by Tuesday

September 5, 2011 Eric Edit Leave a comment Go to comments

Katia, a Cat 2, is expected to slow down (in its movement northwest) and sit and spin up to a major Hurricane by Tuesday. Just look at the well defined eye wall, moving slightly south of the suggested path. Notice the ever slight power shift to the west and south (White), and lack of it north.

Lets take a closer look as this is what I’ve been talking about for a while.

Katia is off the projected path slightly, but still off. By now, the models have Katia at 25N and 63W, but the IR tells a different story; revealing the eye wall at 24N, 62.5W.

This matters, to be off by a whole degree, and will be reflected in the 11am update; I would be surprised if those changes did not take this into account.

There is still much doubt on my part regarding the models resolving the eventual northern turn.

It is my opinion the models are giving a trough of low pressure (don’t worry about what that means) too much power, thus producing the suggested turn out into the Atlantic.

Even the UKMET resolved this overnight, a huge change from yesterday’s westward path.

Just look at the change overnight (Highlighted by the white line). The above is Monday’s resolution, below was yesterday’s. That’s a huge shift, based on a trough which I don’t think has the strength the models are giving it.

This is great news for surfers, don’t get me wrong, and great news for anyone on the East Coast; yet I will believe it when I see it.

Lee (see other tab above) is causing all kinds of problems (in my opinion) with the path of Katia, and could be the reason for the UKMET change overnight. Who knows?

So, don’t trust the models…just use them for guidance and use your due diligence to make sure you have all the facts.

The overnight ‘breathing’ is normal, shown with the pressure and wind field both weakening (lack of sunlight does this most of the time towards sunrise).

This won’t be as appearant once she hits the water in the high 80s, which by then Katia will be a Major Hurricane.

My Best, always.

Eric

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Katia, Hurricane Cat 2 by Thursday; 700 plus miles away from Florida Coastline

September 4, 2011 Eric Edit Leave a comment Go to comments

Katia, will become a major Hurricane in the coming days.By Thursday, she will still be more that 700 miles from the Florida coastline. What concerns me the most is her lack of northward movement, which means the likely hood of landfall increases each day as she moves more west than north.

Looking at the continual drop in pressure is always a good indicator, as well as the rise in wind speeds (sustained)

As mentioned before, with continual dropping of internal pressure, water temps in the high 80s, and wind speeds increasing it now is all about “location, location, location”

Here is where she is as of Sunday morning, notice how she is feeding on the 1. Lack of shear to the west, 2. Water Temps in the high 80s; which in the end pulls and resets the projected paths. With continued WNW movement, models suggest turning north past 70 degrees west; all the while we have been hinting at 73 or further before tracking due north.

Models are projections, not facts. It is concerning that we have been right about the west drifting; I mean we don’t want this to land anywhere. The UKMET (While line) is especially Floridians hope is incorrect; however it had been the model of choice with Irene with 90% accuracy.

So, stay tuned. Sign up and stay informed via email, RSS feeds, Twitter, or whatever you like.

My best, always.

Eric

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The future track of the remnants of Lee is a key part of the forecast for Katia next week.

September 3, 2011 Eric

Katia is barely a hurricane this morning due to southwesterly wind shear and some dry air intrusion.

An upper level trough of low pressure located to the northwest of the storm is weakening, however, another trough of low pressure will push southwestward along the US East Coast and combine with the remnants of Lee next week.

At the same time, a ridge of high pressure may nose westward towards the US East Coast. The wind field has remained just at Hurricane strength.

The big question in the forecast track of Katia is will this trough align itself to allow the storm to track close enough to ride northward right along the US East Coast or will the trough deflect the storm further east. The pressure continues to hold.

Even though some of the model guidance like the GFS and European model have shifted a little eastward overnight, Katia could track further west than what these models are forecasting.

At this point, I think we will see Katia not turn to the north until it is near 73 West Longitude.

Katia should continue to track further west than what the global models are forecasting.

The UKMET model is stubborn on its westward track into the southeastern Bahamas by Wednesday and Thursday.

While I think the UKMET model may be too far west, I do think Katia will track further west than what models like the GFS and European model are forecasting.

With that said, the stubbornness and consistency of the UKMET model has me concerned.

Katia should be a Category 2 hurricane on Tuesday.

Katia should track west-northwestward to near 28 North Latitude, 73 West Longitude before it turns to the north on Thursday.

From there, Katia will track north-northeastward moving just east of the outer banks of North Carolina and then tracking extremely closely to eastern New England on Friday followed by a possible impact into Nova Scotia next weekend.

The future track of the remnants of Lee is a key part of the forecast for next week.

The difference in some of the models is that they track Lee much quicker to the northeast, which breaks down the ridge of high pressure and causing Katia to turn much quicker into the open Atlantic.

If the remnants of Lee stalls instead, what could happen is that the ridge of high pressure would build back to the west and cause Katia to track westward all the way to the US East Coast.

So, the remnants of Lee is a big key in this forecast.

Everything is connected.

My best, always

Eric

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Katia, heading straight for the Carolinas next weekend as a Cat 3!

Good Morning,

I really want to emphasize, Katia does not want to move north as initially expected. East coast, keep an eye out later next week.

This weekend, you’re good.

Southwesterly wind shear over the last 24 hours has caused Katia to weaken a little to a 70 mph tropical storm.

This southwesterly wind shear is expected to continue for the next couple of days and Katia will likely remain somewhere between a strong tropical storm and a Category 1 hurricane through this weekend.

By early next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable and significant strengthening is possible next week.

Katia is tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 15 mph this morning.

The model trends over the last 24 hours have been further and further west with the forecast track of Katia.

I expect this trend to continue and I think Katia will track very close to the US East Coast by later next week.

Given the fact that Katia has weakened to a tropical storm supports the idea that this will remain on a westward track for the time being.

I think Katia may make it as far west as 73 or 74 West Longitude before it turns to the north and northeast late next week into next weekend.

This should cause a very close track to the outer banks of North Carolina and eastern New England followed by a possible impact into Nova Scotia next weekend.

It should be pointed out that any possible threats/impacts on the US East Coast or the Canadian Maritimes are a week or more away.

One weather feature that still needs to be resolved in the models is the tropical cyclone that will be tracking from the Gulf Coast northeastward into the southeastern United States late next week.

It is possible that this system could strengthen the ridge over the western Atlantic and cause an even further west track into the southeastern United States.

Finally, it looks very likely that Katia will remain fairly far north of the Lesser Antilles; so no big worries there.

My best, always.

Eric

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Katia was upgraded to a hurricane this morning as it tracks slightly north of due west at a forward speed of 18 to 19 mph.

The hurricane is located to the south of a ridge of high pressure located over the central Atlantic.

Water vapor satellite loops showed a upper level low pressure system located near 55 West Longitude and a trough of low pressure near 60 West Longitude.

Satellite imagery also showed a second upper level low pressure system located near 71 West Longitude.

These three weather features have created a weakness in the ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic.

It seems likely that Katia will track towards this weakness over the next few days, however, the European and UKMET models forecast that this ridge of high pressure will strengthen early next week causing Katia to turn back towards the west with the UKMET model forecasting a west-southwest track on Tuesday.

After Tuesday, the European model forecasts that Katia will be picked up by a trough of low pressure and steered away from the United States, but threatening Bermuda around the middle part of next week.

It seems likely that Katia will eventually be pulled north and northeastward, however Katia could come a lot closer to the US East Coast than what many of the operational model guidance are suggesting.

It remains possible that Katia will not turn north until it is between 70 and 75 West Longitude later next week which would put eastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes at a significant risk from Katia.

It should be noted that it is not out of the question that Katia could impact some portion of the US East Coast as some of the ensemble members of the European model are forecasting an impact on the southeast US coast in about 10 days from now.

Finally, it should be pointed out that any possible threats/impacts on the United States or the Canadian Maritimes are still 8 to 10 days away and the model guidance may not have fully resolved the handling of the various ridges and troughs over the eastern United States and the western Atlantic.

It seems likely, however, that one of these troughs of low pressure will pick Katia up and send it north and northeast; the question, however, is how far west will Katia be when this happens.

We are just as puzzled as you are right now, so enjoy the day and check back tomorrow. 🙂

My best, always.

Eric

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Katia is slowly strengthening this morning and as of this morning it has 65 mph maximum sustained winds. Katia is tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of some 21 mph.

Water vapor satellite imagery showed a rather large upper level low pressure system located near 55 West Longitude. It appears that Katia should turn to the northwest by this weekend as it closes in on this upper level low pressure system. The model guidance and the entire upper level pattern ahead of Katia seems to strongly suggest that the storm will stay fairly far north of the Lesser Antilles, which is great news for the entire East Coastline of the U.S. (For now)

Looking further out, the latest model guidance seems to agree that Katia poses no threat to the United States, however, they also point to a significant threat to Bermuda next Wednesday and Thursday.

Take note: these models may be forecasting too strong of a trough of low pressure in the eastern United States late next week. Which would alter the path closer to our coastline

The consensus from those in the know resolves a further west than the operational guidance and for a hurricane that turns north somewhere around 70 West Longitude next Thursday.We will see.

Should this happen, this would put eastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes at a significant risk from a hurricane next weekend.

For now, Katia poses no threat to any land masses and we have plenty of time to keep an eye on it.

Looking beyond Katia, the very long range model guidance hints at a tropical cyclone tracking into the Caribbean right around September 13. Again, we will see.

As we head into a pattern shift that involves a stronger high pressure ridge that lasts for 10 to 15 days during the middle part of September and lasts through the first part of October (Peak threat time for us).

This would leave the entire Caribbean and southeastern United States coastline wide open to tropical cyclone landfalls for a two to three week period.

My best, always.

Eric

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Tropical Storm Katia early this morning as the entire system is better organized. Currently there is 15 to 20 knots of shear affecting Katia and this shear is forecast to decrease by later today and tonight with intensification likely from this afternoon into this weekend. It is anticipated that Katia will reach hurricane strength during the day Wednesday and major hurricane strength by late this weekend.

Katia is tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 16 to 17 mph and the storm is being steered by a ridge of high pressure located to the north.

Yesterday, all of the global model guidance pointed to a likely scenario of Katia being steered out to sea due to a upper level low pressure system located over the central Atlantic. Since then the global models are trending towards a weaker and less amplified upper level low pressure system that lifts out with a ridge of high pressure rebuilding to the north of the storm.

The latest GFS model forecasts a track that takes Katia to the north of the Leeward Islands and severely impacts Bermuda next Thursday. The European operational model forecasts a track that takes Katia to the north of the Lesser Antilles and then on a track northward halfway between the US East Coast and Bermuda. The ensemble members of the European model are further west than the operational model and imply a very close brush with the US East Coast with a 10 day forecast position of 28 North Latitude, 73.5 West Longitude.

Two things to point out are that any further shifts to the south in the forecast track will put the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico at a significant threat from Katia. All of our friends in the northeastern Caribbean should closely monitor Katia. The second is that given the trends in the upper air pattern forecast, we may see further shifts to the west in the forecast track of Katia by the model guidance.

It is way, way too early to be confident or certain on any one forecast track for Katia.

As of this morning, a track that takes Katia very close to, if not right over the northeastern Caribbean on Sunday and Monday followed by a track that takes Katia just east of the Bahamas next Wednesday and then northward near the US East Coast late next week and next weekend is most likely (as of now).

The highest threat areas after moving away from the northeastern Caribbean for Katia are Bermuda, the Canadian Maritimes and possibly eastern New England.

Just look at the intensity forecast for Katia, obviously there is little doubt this is our next problem.

My best, always.

Eric

Tropical Depression #12 has developed to the south of the Cape Verde Islands this morning.

This depression is expected to slowly strengthen over the next few days as it encounters some easterly wind shear. Even with the easterly wind shear, environmental conditions should be favorable for strengthening throughout this week; therefore, I expect TD #12 to become Tropical Storm Katia by tonight or early Tuesday and then reach hurricane strength by late this week.

Tropical Depression #12 is tracking due west at a forward speed of 15 mph. This system is currently located to the south of a ridge of high pressure which will weaken somewhat over the next couple of days as a upper-level low pressure system tracks across the central Atlantic. This, in turn, will cause TD 12 to track west-northwestward from later tonight until about Wednesday.

After Wednesday, that upper level low pressure system will weaken and the ridge of high pressure will strengthen to the northeast of the storm thus causing it to remain on a west to west-northwest track through the end of this week.

Looking much further out, the dynamical and global operation model guidance currently forecast that this system will eventually turn to the northwest and north missing the Lesser Antilles by a good distance, but possibly threatening Bermuda in about 10 days from now. The ensemble members of the GFS and European model guidance tell a different story, however.

The GFS ensemble guidance forecasts that TD 12 will track just north of the Lesser Antilles around next Monday. From there, the GFS ensemble forecasts that this system will track to the east of the Bahamas around next Wednesday and then the ensemble guidance becomes much less uncertain with some of the members forecasting a track north and northeastward to Nova Scotia with other ensemble members forecast a westward track into the Gulf of Mexico.

The European ensemble guidance also forecasts a close brush to the northern Leeward Islands around next Monday and then split on the potential track with some members taking it northward towards Bermuda and other members forecasting a west-northwest track towards the Bahamas in 10 days.

Needless to say, it is way too early to be confident or certain on any one forecast track. The GFS operational model is biased with forecasting tracks that take systems into the open Atlantic too quickly. I do think there are a couple of possibilities: The first is a track that takes this system about a couple of hundred miles north and east of the northern Leeward Islands next Monday and then impact Bermuda by late next week. The other possibility is that this could conceivably head towards the Caribbean and miss the upper level trough of low pressure that is forecast over the western Atlantic in 8 to 10 days from now. The track model guidance is slowly trending towards that direction and I will continue to closely monitor these model trends. Right now, I am leaning towards a track that eventually takes this very close to, if not right over the northeastern Caribbean next weekend followed by a turn to the north and a threat to Bermuda and the Canadian Maritimes late next week into next weekend.

Invest 92L In The Eastern Atlantic:
Right behind Invest 91L, is Invest 92L and has the potential to grow behind Invest 91L, which right now located over the far eastern Atlantic ocean southeast of the Cape Verde Islands.

Environmental conditions are very favorable for development and we may have our next tropical depression or tropical storm by Tuesday or Wednesday.

All of the global model guidance, including the GFS and European model guidance, are forecasting this to be a potentially significant hurricane down the road.

Just look at where Invest 92L could be on Sept 7th, 2011.

The European model, in particular, has been pointing to that Invest 92L will track west-northwestward across the Atlantic as a ridge of high pressure strengthens over the next week to ten days. Right Towards Florida

The GFS model forecasts 92L to curve out into the Atlantic.

Given the fact that the NAO forecast is for it to be neutral to slightly positive, giving a stronger ridge of high pressure and for 92L to track fairly far west much like what the European model is forecasting. Again, right towards Florida’s East Coast.

It should be noted that the European model is forecasting 92L to be a powerful hurricane just east of the Bahamas 10 days from now (see above image) with a ridge of high pressure pushing it west-northwestward and this is a forecast with a high amount of certainty