This site has moved

http://gwtechinc.com/eric-wilson/

From here (above) I will continue to give everything as before; yet in a more user friendly environment.

The next two weeks changes might appear, so forgive me.

The suggestion I get from most of you is to make this site social; so that’s the goal.

Enjoy the new site, bookmark it, sign up for email updates, all the bells and whistles.

My best, always.

Eric

Katia, Cat 2, slows down and spins up into a Major Hurricane by Tuesday

Katia, a Cat 2, is expected to slow down (in its movement northwest) and sit and spin up to a major Hurricane by Tuesday. Just look at the well defined eye wall, moving slightly south of the suggested path. Notice the ever slight power shift to the west and south (White), and lack of it north.

Lets take a closer look as this is what I’ve been talking about for a while.

Katia is off the projected path slightly, but still off. By now, the models have Katia at 25N and 63W, but the IR tells a different story; revealing the eye wall at 24N, 62.5W.

This matters, to be off by a whole degree, and will be reflected in the 11am update; I would be surprised if those changes did not take this into account.

There is still much doubt on my part regarding the models resolving the eventual northern turn.

It is my opinion the models are giving a trough of low pressure (don’t worry about what that means) too much power, thus producing the suggested turn out into the Atlantic.

Even the UKMET resolved this overnight, a huge change from yesterday’s westward path.

Just look at the change overnight (Highlighted by the white line). The above is Monday’s resolution, below was yesterday’s. That’s a huge shift, based on a trough which I don’t think has the strength the models are giving it.

This is great news for surfers, don’t get me wrong, and great news for anyone on the East Coast; yet I will believe it when I see it.

Lee (see other tab above) is causing all kinds of problems (in my opinion) with the path of Katia, and could be the reason for the UKMET change overnight. Who knows?

So, don’t trust the models…just use them for guidance and use your due diligence to make sure you have all the facts.

The overnight ‘breathing’ is normal, shown with the pressure and wind field both weakening (lack of sunlight does this most of the time towards sunrise).

This won’t be as appearant once she hits the water in the high 80s, which by then Katia will be a Major Hurricane.

My Best, always.

Eric

Katia, Hurricane Cat 2 by Thursday; 700 plus miles away from Florida Coastline

Katia, will become a major Hurricane in the coming days.By Thursday, she will still be more that 700 miles from the Florida coastline. What concerns me the most is her lack of northward movement, which means the likely hood of landfall increases each day as she moves more west than north.

Looking at the continual drop in pressure is always a good indicator, as well as the rise in wind speeds (sustained)

As mentioned before, with continual dropping of internal pressure, water temps in the high 80s, and wind speeds increasing it now is all about “location, location, location”

Here is where she is as of Sunday morning, notice how she is feeding on the 1. Lack of shear to the west, 2. Water Temps in the high 80s; which in the end pulls and resets the projected paths. With continued WNW movement, models suggest turning north past 70 degrees west; all the while we have been hinting at 73 or further before tracking due north.

 

Models are projections, not facts. It is concerning that we have been right about the west drifting; I mean we don’t want this to land anywhere. The UKMET (While line) is especially Floridians hope is incorrect; however it had been the model of choice with Irene with 90% accuracy.

So, stay tuned. Sign up and stay informed via email, RSS feeds, Twitter, or whatever you like.

My best, always.

Eric

Tropical Storm Lee, flooding not just Lousiana; Mississippi and Alabama are next

Lee makes landfall, and in turtle form will continue to tap into the Gulf and drench Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama by Tuesday night

When computer models project 10″ (as a rule of thumb) I always double the number; just take my word for it. Now, in the case of a Tropical Storm or Disturbance I triple it. Just ask anyone in Brevard county from Tropical Storm Fay, they saw near 36 to 40 inches of rain, and the flooding happened 36 hours later. Trust me, this is 20 years talking.

With those numbers (3 feet of rain) in those areas, anyone in low lying areas must consider relocating by Monday (Mississippi) or Tuesday (Alabama) as flooding will start 36 hours after the storm ‘leaves’ the area. Its attrition, for those curious. The water always seeks the lowest point, then floods up from that area. If you are 30 minutes from any low lying area, consider you and your family in harms way and take measures to protect what you consider valuable. If you or anyone you are concerned about are within the circles, consider yourself forewarned.

Outside of the obvious (your family and friends), consider pictures and documents which can not be reproduced; then move out and wait until Thursday (Mississippi) or Friday (Alabama) to make the call about going back at the soonest, it could be longer.

Be safe, always.

Eric

Tropical Depression 13 (Lee) Could see water will pile up on the northern and northwestern shores of Lake Pontchartrain

Good Morning, I knew this would be a slow one. Make sure to click on the radar, then click again to zoom in on areas you are concerned about.

Nothing really to do at this point accept watch this make landfall and then drench the northern gulf.

Those in the northern gulf are watching tv, so be careful and keep in mind my previous posts about the flooding potential.

My best, always.

Eric

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Here is the latest track as of Friday Night. See you tomorrow morning!

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This is something that will need to be watched very closely, keep an update with the radar to the right by clicking on the picture for the most up to date loop of what’s happening now.

Tropical Depression 13 is fairly elongated this morning with poorly organized thunderstorm activity.

The current depression is experiencing some shear on its west side, however, environmental conditions will become more favorable this weekend.

This system still remains to surprise us and strengthen into an upper end tropical storm or possibly a Category 1 hurricane.

Very heavy flooding rainfall will be the main threat with this slow moving meandering system.

Given the fact that the center is so broad, TD 13 (Lee) could reform further to the southeast closer to the deep convection today, time will tell.

This could also allow this system a little more time to strengthen before it comes ashore next week, also something to keep in mind.

Tropical Depression 13 (Lee) is within an area of light steering winds to the south of a ridge of high pressure over the Mississippi Valley.

This ridge of high pressure is expected to push to the east this weekend as a trough of low pressure tracks southeastward into the Ohio Valley by Sunday and Monday.

What does any of that have to do with TD 13 (Lee)?

Expect this tropical storm to move VERY SLOWLY and track eastward from:

Vermilion Bay during Sunday

then, Lake Borgne in southeastern Louisiana on Monday evening

and then finally inland into Mississippi and Alabama on Monday night or Tuesday morning.

There still exists the very real possibility of 30 to 50 mph east to southeast winds in the New Orleans metro area from today through Sunday followed by northerly winds of 30 to 50 mph on Monday and Tuesday.

So, what could happen is that the water will pile up on the northern and northwestern shores of Lake Pontchartrain this weekend and then be pushed back out towards New Orleans on Monday and Tuesday.

My best, always.

Eric

Gulf, Tropical Storm “Lee” (not yet) Invest 93L

I continue to keep a close eye on a tropical disturbance that has tracked from the northwestern Caribbean into the southern Gulf of Mexico today.

This disturbance has just been designated Invest 93L by the National Hurricane Center and is expected to track northwestward over the next few days.

Invest 93L continues to have the potential to become a tropical storm late this week into this weekend and very possibly a hurricane as it meanders near the Texas coast during the early and middle part of next week.

Anyone along the Texas coast, as well as along the northern Gulf Coast to keep very close tabs on Invest 93L.

I will have more later in the morning

My best, always

Eric

Tropical Storm Lee?

This development stems from a tropical disturbance now located over the northwestern Caribbean.

This disturbance will track into the southern Gulf of Mexico within the next 24 to 36 hours and then slowly organize and develop late this week into this weekend as it heads towards the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Should this develop it will become Tropical Storm Lee as it slowly tracks into the western and northwestern Caribbean by Sunday and Monday.

A trend in the guidance has this system in the northern half of  the Gulf of Mexico within some very weak steering currents.

The latest European model guidance foresees this potential with the future TS Lee nearly stalled in the western Gulf of Mexico from Monday through Wednesday before it tracks inland near Galveston and Houston next Thursday.

Something to keep in mind, the Gulf of Mexico is very warm and tropical systems near the Texas coast have a history of developing and intensifying very quickly near the Texas coast.

Keep following this one, as right now its a bigger problem for the US than Katia.

My best, always.

Eric

Katia, something Floridians need to consider next week. First Katia Could Hit The Bay Of Campeche Or Gulf Of Mexico Late This Week Into This Weekend

Tropical Storm Katia early this morning as the entire system is better organized. Currently there is 15 to 20 knots of shear affecting Katia and this shear is forecast to decrease by later today and tonight with intensification likely from this afternoon into this weekend. It is anticipated that Katia will reach hurricane strength during the day Wednesday and major hurricane strength by late this weekend.

Katia is tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 16 to 17 mph and the storm is being steered by a ridge of high pressure located to the north.

Yesterday, all of the global model guidance pointed to a likely scenario of Katia being steered out to sea due to a upper level low pressure system located over the central Atlantic. Since then the global models are trending towards a weaker and less amplified upper level low pressure system that lifts out with a ridge of high pressure rebuilding to the north of the storm.

The latest GFS model forecasts a track that takes Katia to the north of the Leeward Islands and severely impacts Bermuda next Thursday. The European operational model forecasts a track that takes Katia to the north of the Lesser Antilles and then on a track northward halfway between the US East Coast and Bermuda. The ensemble members of the European model are further west than the operational model and imply a very close brush with the US East Coast with a 10 day forecast position of 28 North Latitude, 73.5 West Longitude.

Two things to point out are that any further shifts to the south in the forecast track will put the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico at a significant threat from Katia. All of our friends in the northeastern Caribbean should closely monitor Katia. The second is that given the trends in the upper air pattern forecast, we may see further shifts to the west in the forecast track of Katia by the model guidance.

It is way, way too early to be confident or certain on any one forecast track for Katia.

As of this morning, a track that takes Katia very close to, if not right over the northeastern Caribbean on Sunday and Monday followed by a track that takes Katia just east of the Bahamas next Wednesday and then northward near the US East Coast late next week and next weekend is most likely (as of now).

The highest threat areas after moving away from the northeastern Caribbean for Katia are Bermuda, the Canadian Maritimes and possibly eastern New England.

Just look at the intensity forecast for Katia, obviously there is little doubt this is our next problem.

My best, always.

Eric

Floridians, Watch Katia very closely. She could ruin your week next week.

Tropical Depression #12 has developed to the south of the Cape Verde Islands this morning.

This depression is expected to slowly strengthen over the next few days as it encounters some easterly wind shear. Even with the easterly wind shear, environmental conditions should be favorable for strengthening throughout this week; therefore, I expect TD #12 to become Tropical Storm Katia by tonight or early Tuesday and then reach hurricane strength by late this week.

Tropical Depression #12 is tracking due west at a forward speed of 15 mph. This system is currently located to the south of a ridge of high pressure which will weaken somewhat over the next couple of days as a upper-level low pressure system tracks across the central Atlantic. This, in turn, will cause TD 12 to track west-northwestward from later tonight until about Wednesday.

After Wednesday, that upper level low pressure system will weaken and the ridge of high pressure will strengthen to the northeast of the storm thus causing it to remain on a west to west-northwest track through the end of this week.

Looking much further out, the dynamical and global operation model guidance currently forecast that this system will eventually turn to the northwest and north missing the Lesser Antilles by a good distance, but possibly threatening Bermuda in about 10 days from now. The ensemble members of the GFS and European model guidance tell a different story, however.

The GFS ensemble guidance forecasts that TD 12 will track just north of the Lesser Antilles around next Monday. From there, the GFS ensemble forecasts that this system will track to the east of the Bahamas around next Wednesday and then the ensemble guidance becomes much less uncertain with some of the members forecasting a track north and northeastward to Nova Scotia with other ensemble members forecast a westward track into the Gulf of Mexico.

The European ensemble guidance also forecasts a close brush to the northern Leeward Islands around next Monday and then split on the potential track with some members taking it northward towards Bermuda and other members forecasting a west-northwest track towards the Bahamas in 10 days.

Needless to say, it is way too early to be confident or certain on any one forecast track. The GFS operational model is biased with forecasting tracks that take systems into the open Atlantic too quickly. I do think there are a couple of possibilities: The first is a track that takes this system about a couple of hundred miles north and east of the northern Leeward Islands next Monday and then impact Bermuda by late next week. The other possibility is that this could conceivably head towards the Caribbean and miss the upper level trough of low pressure that is forecast over the western Atlantic in 8 to 10 days from now. The track model guidance is slowly trending towards that direction and I will continue to closely monitor these model trends. Right now, I am leaning towards a track that eventually takes this very close to, if not right over the northeastern Caribbean next weekend followed by a turn to the north and a threat to Bermuda and the Canadian Maritimes late next week into next weekend.

Invest 92L: Further out, right behind Invest 91L and its eyes are on Florida’s East Coast

Invest 92L In The Eastern Atlantic:
Right behind Invest 91L, is Invest 92L and has the potential to grow behind Invest 91L, which right now located over the far eastern Atlantic ocean southeast of the Cape Verde Islands.

Environmental conditions are very favorable for development and we may have our next tropical depression or tropical storm by Tuesday or Wednesday.

All of the global model guidance, including the GFS and European model guidance, are forecasting this to be a potentially significant hurricane down the road.

Just look at where Invest 92L could be on Sept 7th, 2011.

The European model, in particular, has been pointing to that Invest 92L will track west-northwestward across the Atlantic as a ridge of high pressure strengthens over the next week to ten days. Right Towards Florida

The GFS model forecasts 92L to curve out into the Atlantic.

Given the fact that the NAO forecast is for it to be neutral to slightly positive, giving a stronger ridge of high pressure and for 92L to track fairly far west much like what the European model is forecasting. Again, right towards Florida’s East Coast.

It should be noted that the European model is forecasting 92L to be a powerful hurricane just east of the Bahamas 10 days from now (see above image) with a ridge of high pressure pushing it west-northwestward and this is a forecast with a high amount of certainty

Invest 92L could develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm over the next couple of days or so, right behind Invest 91L.

My best, always.

Eric