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Eric Wilson will update this blog Jan 1st, 2011.

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Update: Invest 93 L June 25th, 2010

*All interest along the Gulf States need to keep checking on the progression of this system into next week*

The newest data this morning places an area of low pressure (at least) further west and closer to the Texas/Mexico coastline early next week. Sunday’s placement of the low is further west than yesterday’s solution.

Invest 93 L is still in the Western Caribbean as a broad area of low pressure

Supporting conditions for development

Forecast intensity concentrates less intense storm…for a longer period of time, which would lead to track between those provided below…

Once again we are stuck with two solutions…as one group has upper level low and the other camp does not factor the low.

Models, such as the GFDL, HWRF, TVCC and TVCN threaten the Florida panhandle…again, the low discussed earlier pulls this system east towards Florida in these solutions by the middle of next week at the earliest.

While the global models don’t have this trough of low pressure aloft as a factor, and therefore a more westerly solution is the result. This runs the same timeline (middle of next week) and puts northern Mexico and southern Texas under the gun.

Conclusion…for now

As mentioned before, it appears the safest bet is neither camp has it together…and therfore taking the middle road is the best result with this morning’s data.

Saturday: Crossing the Yucatan Peninsula and weakening a bit

Sunday: Bay of Campeche, growing into a tropical storm possibly stronger

Early next week: Tropical Storm Alex in the Gulf of Mexico

After that, too ambiguous and uncertain to jot anything with confidence.

This is, of course, what the models say this morning. Saturday could tell another story, which is when my next update will cross your eyes.

Have a great day.

Eric

ps. I am on vacation the next two weeks, but will keep updates as needed with this storm. Should it threaten the Florida coast line, I will return early from vacation (I know, my wife is not pleased either…nobody wants a storm…ever)

-E

Update: Invest 93 L Thursday, June 24 2010

Good Morning,

If you have interests in the Caribbean or Gulf States, all need to be aware of this system at this time.

Here is the latest discussion regarding this current tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea this morning…below is only one of many solutions as to Invest 93 L’s location Saturday night.

The purpose of this blog is to explain why this may or may not happen.

Scroll down below the data/pictures for my take on what the current thinking is regarding this weekend and this system.

Path of Invest 93 L depends on which side of the fence you are on this morning, personally…I am riding the fence for now.

The European and the BAM models all pull this thing directly west into the western Gulf of Mexico, northern Mexico or southern Texas…but (again) I’m not so sure I want to put all my eggs in that basket just yet.

The GFDL, HWRF, TVCN, and TVCC models forecast a turn to the north and threaten the northern Gulf Coast.

The GFS….shows nothing.

Initial bias out of the gate would be to lean away from the European model, as it is pulling the track towards a system that isn’t even there yet (Thunderstorms in Mexico Sunday)…

Probability…

There still seems to be a favorable environment for development over the next couple of days. Low to moderate wind shear and plenty of energy in the water ahead of Invest 93 L keep that suggestion alive for now.

Tropical Depression status by Friday at this time is not out of the question, which would then track the southern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday evening.

Should the aforementioned happen, then it is still unclear where to go from there. Right now the major player in all this is the trough of low pressure expected in that same area at that same time. This puts the European model too far south, leaving the TVCN/TVCC models to side with…which has the trough pulling this system north into the heart of the Gulf of Mexico.

How big this gets is based on what we have in the Gulf on Monday, which if pulled north would have to overcome a strong southwest wind shear to get beyond a strong Tropical Storm/Low end Cat 1 Hurricane.

Invest 93 L, (Alex?) Update

Good Morning,

Here is the latest with Invest 93 L….

All interests in the western and northwestern Caribbean, as well as the Gulf of Mexico, to include the entire United States Gulf coast should keep very close tabs on this system

Producing heavy rain across the Dominican Republic and Haiti Wednesday, circulation indicated by satellite shows it is still pretty wide spread. Notice the building in the east around the center of circulation, while the area west is calm for now.

Checking the mid level winds appear to have control of Invest 93 at this time, as lower and upper wind dynamics are still a bit ragged and less concentric.

It is this area in the west which shows the most potential for development and has my attention…

The current sea surface temperatures are well above average at this time…

And the heat contained in the water, ocean heat content, shows plenty of energy ready to be released…

Wind Shear is the most impressive at this time, just notice the concentric nature just west of center….

This will allow the vertical development (growth) of Invest 93 L as it expends the energy trapped in the Caribbean Sea…which means, this could get much stronger by Friday afternoon.

So…should the above follow the trend of development, where does Invest 93 L (Alex) go? Let’s break it down…

First of all, I will check the location and strength of High pressure at 30 West Longitude…where this goes, so goes Invest 93.

High pressure in the Atlantic is a major player with the progress of this system…should it build stronger, look for a more westerly track to result early next week.

Right now, the probability ‘clouds’ are growing in favor of two solutions: By Saturday if….

1. Invest 93 is a wave/tropical depression/low end tropical storm…track west-northwest…heading towards Texas coast

2. Invest 93 s stronger as an upper end tropical storm/Hurricane….track to the northern Gulf coast more likely

This Tropical wave located early Wednesday at 75 West longitude could run into another wave moving towards the entire complex and push Invest 93 into the Florida Straits, adding energy, Friday or early Saturday.

The latest thinking…

Invest 93 L appears it will hold as a tropical wave for now, Thursday could see organization (T.Depression/T. Storm?) as it runs into the steamy ocean temperatures of the Gulf of Mexico.

Reaching the northwest Caribbean and Yucatan Channel Saturday as Tropical Storm as a Cat 1 Hurricane when it reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico later this weekend. Should this be the case, the more northerly track away from the Texas coast and towards the northern coast of the Gulf is more likely.

Next update, Thursday June 24th. Until then, have a great day!

Eric

Tracking The Tropics: Invest 93 L

Good Morning,

Invest 93 L has some potential to become stronger in the next 48 hours or sooner.

Those with interests in the Gulf Coast of Texas should keep an eye on this system

This tropical wave puts a wrinkle in the long-range forecast for Central Florida this weekend, as ECMF argues a Tropical Low in the Gulf of Mexico…the GFS does not have any development this weekend. So…let us dig deeper

With High pressure building over the Tennessee Valley, typically we see a decrease of shear over the Caribbean. This reflects the areas favorable for development shown below.

Wind Shear environment currently…

Sea surface temperatures are above average values across the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea would support formation and intensification.

The models are really fighting over this development, with the SHIPS model taking this area to Hurricane force by Thursday while the LGEM takes Invest 93 L to Hurricane status by Friday (Cat 3 by saturday). The ICVN intensity forecast also has Hurricane strength by this weekend.

Ok, before we get carried away, this is just a projection…which I will explain my take on below

This morning it appears the SHIPS and GFDL are too aggressive, and the HWRF is taking the storm too far north and east. At this time the model with the most confidence is the European with the current environment.

The European model takes Invest 93 L into the northwest Caribbean Sea by Saturday and then tracks northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday threatening landfall along the coast of Texas Tuesday night or Wednesday of next week.

Let us back up, and take the above image with some interest…as of right now, it is the winning solution; and even that is vague.

By Friday, we could have Tropical Storm Alex (Possibly a Hurricane Cat 1) threatening in the western Caribbean Sea. Let us just leave it at that and follow up Wednesday morning with another look at the environment and projections.

Have a great day!

Eric

Invest 92…Tracking The Tropics Wednesday, June 16th 2010

*Currently updating*

While there is nothing of immediate concern over the next 48 hours, I have 3 (three) areas I am watching currently…

First area of concern, the Gulf of Mexico…

The area around the southwestern edge of the Gulf of Mexico flared up overnight as conditions were just right for them to do so.

This morning when I came in, the cluster of storms was rather impressive

Tracking…most of the models have this cluster pushing through Mexico this week and emerging into the Pacific over the weekend.

Second is the area formerly known as Invest 92 L…in the Atlantic

A closer look of this system shows similar flare up just north of center; however there is no discernible eye wall via cloud cover images…which is one of many problems this system is facing if it wants to develop over the next 48 hours.

Models still want to push this energy through a tough shear environment…

Add the shear environment, and there is little confidence in the above tracks….

Don’t write this energy off just yet, as it could push through the heavy shear (and stay a wave as it does) and emerge out of the shear environment into the southern Gulf of Mexico next Wednesday.

This would make a tropical storm Gulf of Mexico seem like it came “…out of nowhere” only if you take your eyes off of it…which I won’t.

Lastly, the Tropical Wave train continues over Africa…

This is unorganized at the moment, but is very active and just south of where we would normally see activity…in July!

I will keep an eye on the waves which bounce off the west coast each day, and keep you informed.

Take care,

Eric

Invest 92 L; Update Tuesday June 15 2010

Good Morning,

Invest 92 L is no more, at least for now….it is still an area of interest for me.

Overnight, this area of low pressure/tropical wave weakened a bit and fell apart as it moved into a heavier shear environment.

This wind shear (below) ahead of the tropical wave might just be enough to take former Invest 92 L off the discussion list.

This would move our attention back east where the African tropical wave train is running at full strength.

Current model projections for this area of low pressure/tropical wave as of this morning…

Beyond the model tracks, the forecast still shows this wave getting stronger…and then more than likely running into the shear mentioned above.

I will keep an eye out east as two (2) waves will enter the Altantic by the weekend, and could develop…

Until then, my next update will be Wednesday morning.

My best,

Eric

Invest 92, Tropical Storm Alex later this week?

Good Morning,

All interests in the Leeward and Windward Islands should keep close tabs on the progress of Invest 92-L

Labeled Invest 92 L, for now, this storm could become a Tropical Depression later today.

Located over 1000 miles away from Leeward Islands, 1050 miles away southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, this area of low pressure has become better organized over the last 12 hours. The cloud signature is showing/favoring tropical depression status later this afternoon. I would not rule out this system becoming Tropical Storm “Alex” by Tuesday morning.

Tracking Invest 92 L at this time shows a west northwest forward speed of 15 mph through Tuesday; which by Tuesday afternoon could see a deflection to direct westward. The best model projection at this time is the TVCN and TVCC dynamic models…which take this system into the Leeward Ilslands by Saturday.

Tropical storm status can not be ruled out, as the intensity forecast reveals..

The fly in the ointment, wind shear. By later this week, this system will encounter some pretty rought environmental conditions with shear values above 30 mph which could weaken this storm later this week.

Behind this, another strong tropical wave has just entered the Atlantic off the coast of Africa. This system also has potential to develop into something of concern. Tropical waves will continue to jump off the west coast of Africa for the next week and a half. By the end of the month, we should see a break only to see it go crazy in the first two weeks of July.

The fact we are even talking about tropical weather this soon is a clear indication of how the season will unfold, possibly a historic season should everything fall into place. I will keep you informed with another update Tuesday Morning.

My best,

Eric

Tropical Discussion; Invest 92 L…Updated June 13 2010

Good Afternoon,

Invest 92 L has my attention this morning, so let us see where 92 L might go from here…

All interests in the Lesser Antilles should keep close tabs on this system.

Right now, Invest 92 L  is 900 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and has slid just west of its morning location of 8 North Latitude, 32.5 West Longitude.

Invest 92 L could become a tropical depression soon (tonight or early Monday morning); in fact indications show it could become the first named storm of the 2010 Hurricane season…Alex…sometime Monday afternoon.

Model projections right now are running a little too far north, as high pressure should push the direction more westerly early into mid-week (June 16th-18th)

The shear environment would appear to be favorable over the next week in areas directly west of 92’s location

Should this come true (more westerly track) over the next several days, the lesser Antilles should keep a close eye on this system. Friday is the earliest we could see Invest 92 (or Alex) threaten their shores.

Another update Monday morning after the show…

My best,

Eric

Tropical Weather Watch: Update Thursday, June 10th 2010

All is quiet for now…

Southwest Caribbean Sea

Atlantic

Western Africa